In the first three quarters, in the face of the complex and severe domestic and international environment, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all localities and departments conscientiously implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, scientifically coordinated the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, strengthened the inter policy adjustment of macro policies, effectively responded to the multiple tests of the epidemic situation and so on, and continued to develop the national economy. The main macro indicators are generally in a reasonable range, the economic structure has been continuously adjusted and optimized, and the quality and efficiency have been steadily improved. The cumulative growth rate of power consumption continued to double-digit growth, and the power installed structure continued the trend of green and low-carbon development. Affected by multiple factors such as tight power coal supply, the overall power supply and demand situation in the third quarter was tight, and orderly power consumption appeared in many places across the country.

1、 National power supply and demand in the first three quarters of 2021

（1） Power consumption demand

       In the first three quarters of this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 6.17 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The low base in the same period of last year and the recovery of the national economy since this year are the main reasons for the rapid growth of electricity consumption; The average growth rate in the two years was 7.4%, 3.0 percentage points higher than that in the same period in 2019. Quarterly, the electricity consumption of the whole society in each quarter increased by 21.2%, 11.8% and 7.6% respectively year-on-year. Affected by the base factor in the same period, the year-on-year growth rate decreased quarter by quarter; The average growth rate in each quarter and two years was 7.0%, 8.2% and 7.1% respectively, maintaining a steady and rapid growth level on the whole.

       First, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 75.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% and an average increase of 14.2% in the two years. 1、 In the second and third quarters, the power consumption of the primary industry increased by 26.4%, 15.9% and 16.4% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 14.6%, 14.1% and 13.9% respectively, maintaining a rapid growth momentum. The state has further promoted the strategy of rural revitalization, and the investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery has increased rapidly, driving the rapid growth of power consumption in the primary industry.

       Second, the power consumption of the secondary industry was 4.10 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% and an average increase of 6.9% in the two years. 1、 In the second and third quarters, the power consumption of the secondary industry increased by 24.1%, 10.6% and 5.1% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 7.4%, 7.3% and 6.1% respectively. The decline in the growth rate of the four high load energy industries was an important reason for the decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the power consumption of manufacturing industry increased by 13.3% year-on-year, with an average increase of 7.5% in the two years; Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of power consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, other manufacturing industries, consumer goods manufacturing and the four high load energy industries were 19.7%, 17.2%, 16.2% and 9.5% respectively, and the average growth rates in the two years were 10.1%, 9.1%, 6.3% and 6.4% respectively. The growth rate of power consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry is significantly higher than the average level of manufacturing industry in the same period, reflecting the continuous upgrading trend of the current manufacturing industry. The state resolutely curbed the blind development of "two high" projects, and the average growth rate of the four high load energy industries fell quarter by quarter. The average growth rate of each quarter was 7.1%, 6.7% and 5.6% respectively.

       Third, the power consumption of the tertiary industry was 1.08 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and an average increase of 9.7% in the two years. 1、 In the second and third quarters, the power consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 28.2%, 23.6% and 13.1% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 7.9%, 12.0% and 9.4% respectively. The growth rate in the third quarter was lower than that in the second quarter, mainly due to the epidemic spread in some areas in the current quarter, which had a great impact on the contact aggregation service industries such as transportation, accommodation and catering. In the first three quarters, the power consumption of leasing and business services (26.6%), accommodation and catering (26.3%), wholesale and retail (25.7%), real estate (22.3%) and public services and management organizations (21.1%) increased by more than 20% year-on-year; The average growth rate of information transmission / software and information technology services (22.2%), leasing and business services (13.3%), wholesale and retail (11.4%) in the two years exceeded 10%. Thanks to the continuous and rapid development of electric vehicles, the power consumption of charging and replacing service industry continued to maintain a high-speed growth, with an average growth rate of 82.0% in the two years.

       Fourth, the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 908.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% and an average increase of 6.5% in the two years. 1、 In the second and third quarters, the domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 4.7%, 4.2% and 11.3% respectively year-on-year; The two-year average growth rate was 3.9%, 7.9% and 8.0% respectively. The low growth rate in the first quarter was mainly affected by the warmer temperature after mid January. The two-year average growth rate of domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents in the second and third quarters basically returned to the normal growth level in recent years.

       Fifth, the year-on-year growth rate and two-year average growth rate of power consumption in all regions exceeded the growth level of the same period in 2019. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the East, middle, West and northeast increased by 13.6%, 13.8%, 12.1% and 8.2% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 7.8%, 6.5%, 8.1% and 4.3% respectively, all exceeding the growth level in the same period in 2019. In the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth rate of power consumption of the whole society in 23 provinces exceeded 10%, of which Tibet increased by 22.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of power consumption in 9 provinces of Hubei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Fujian, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Sichuan and Ningxia was 15% - 20%; The average growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in 31 provinces was positive in the two years, of which the average growth rate in Tibet, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guangxi exceeded 10%.

（2） Power production and supply

       By the end of September, the national installed capacity of full caliber power generation was 2.29 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. In the first three quarters, the power generation of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 6.07 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 2880 hours, an increase of 113 hours year-on-year.

       First, power investment increased by 0.8% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the national key survey enterprises completed a total power investment of 602.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and an average increase of 12.7% in the two years. Among them, the investment in power supply was 313.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, an average increase of 32.1% in two years, and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation investment in power supply investment reached 89.0%; The completed investment of power grid was 289.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and an average decrease of 1.1% in two years. The reduction of projects under construction of DC projects led to a year-on-year decrease of 36.4% in DC project investment and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in AC project investment.

       Second, the installed capacity of full caliber grid connected wind power and solar power increased by 32.8% and 24.6% respectively year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the installed capacity of new power generation in China was 92.4 million KW, an increase of 2016 million KW year-on-year. By the end of September, the national installed capacity of full caliber thermal power was 1.28 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; Among them, coal power was 1.1 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, accounting for 47.9% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points. The installed capacity of hydropower was 380 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. 53.26 million kilowatts of nuclear power, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Wind power was 300 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%. The installed capacity of solar power generation was 280 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. The installed capacity of full caliber non fossil energy power generation was 1.05 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, accounting for 45.7% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year.

       Third, the full caliber grid connected wind power and solar power generation increased by 41.6% and 24.5% respectively year-on-year. In the first three quarters, affected by factors such as low precipitation, the hydropower generation capacity of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in China was 903 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; Affected by the rapid growth of power consumption and the negative growth of hydropower generation, the thermal power generation capacity of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 4.33 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; Nuclear power generation was 303.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The full caliber wind power and grid connected solar power generation were 471.5 billion kWh and 249.1 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6% and 24.5% respectively. Full bore non fossil energy power generation was 2.17 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; It accounted for 34.7% of the full caliber power generation, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The full caliber coal-fired power generation was 3.74 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; It accounted for 59.8% of the full caliber power generation, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points.

       Fourth, the utilization hours of nuclear power, thermal power and wind power generation equipment increased by 321, 280 and 91 hours respectively year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 2880 hours, an increase of 113 hours year-on-year. In terms of classification, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment are 2794 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 100 hours; The utilization hours of nuclear power equipment were 5842 hours, a year-on-year increase of 321 hours; The utilization hours of thermal power equipment were 3339 hours, a year-on-year increase of 280 hours, including 3450 hours of coal power, a year-on-year increase of 318 hours; The utilization hours of wind power equipment were 1640 hours, an increase of 91 hours year-on-year; The utilization hours of solar power generation equipment were 1006 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 4 hours.

       Fifth, the inter regional power output increased by 7.8% year-on-year, and the inter provincial power output increased by 8.6% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, 517.8 billion kwh of trans regional power transmission was completed, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the northwest region's outward power transmission is 240.6 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, which is the region with the largest scale of outward power transmission. Across the country, 1219.7 billion kwh of electricity was transmitted across provinces, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.

       Sixth, the market trading power increased by 20.1% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the power trading centers across the country organized and completed a total of 2709.18 billion kwh of market trading electricity, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%. Among them, the total medium - and long-term electricity directly traded in the national power market was 2170.44 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, accounting for 35.2% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year.

       Seventh, the supply of power coal continued to be tight, coal prices continued to rise sharply, and coal and power enterprises suffered large losses. In the first three quarters, the national raw coal output increased by 3.7% year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of the year; In the first three quarters, the cumulative import of coal decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The state supported increasing the purchase of imported coal, and the cumulative decline in coal import gradually narrowed. The price of power coal continues to rise, hitting record highs, making it more difficult to purchase and ensure supply of power coal. The fuel cost of coal-fired power enterprises has risen sharply, and the loss surface of coal-fired power enterprises has expanded significantly. Since August, the coal-fired power sector of large power generation groups has suffered overall losses, and the loss surface of some groups has reached 100%.

（3） National power supply and demand

       In the first quarter, the overall balance of power supply and demand in China. Affected by cold wave weather and other factors, there was a power gap in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Xinjiang in January, and orderly power consumption measures were taken. In the second quarter, the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country. Due to the rapid growth of power consumption demand, dry incoming water, tight power coal supply and other factors, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi took orderly power consumption measures. In the third quarter, the national power supply and demand was generally tight, especially in September. Affected by the superposition of multiple factors such as tight power coal supply, rapid growth of power consumption demand and strengthening "dual control of energy consumption" in some regions, more than 20 provinces across the country took orderly power consumption measures.

2、 Forecast of national power supply and demand situation

（1） In 2021, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 10% - 11% year-on-year

       The state adheres to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, makes overall arrangements for the connection of macro policies this year and next, keeps the economic operation within a reasonable range, and provides the main support for the growth of power consumption in the whole society. Considering the economic situation at home and abroad, changes in the base of the previous year, power substitution and other factors, combined with the uncertainty of the current external environment, it is expected that the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 10% - 11% in 2021, of which the power consumption of the whole society will increase by about 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

（2） By the end of 2021, the installed capacity and proportion of non fossil energy power generation are expected to exceed that of coal power for the first time

       It is estimated that in the whole year, the installed capacity of new power generation in national infrastructure will be about 180 million KW, including about 140 million kw of non fossil energy power generation. It is estimated that the installed capacity of power generation in China will be 2.37 billion kw by the end of the year, an increase of about 7.7% year-on-year; Among them, the installed capacity of coal power is 1.11 billion kw, hydropower is 390 million KW, grid connected wind power is 330 million KW, grid connected solar power generation is 310 million KW, nuclear power is 54.41 million KW and biomass power generation is about 36 million KW. The total installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation reached about 1.12 billion kw, accounting for 47.3% of the total installed capacity, an increase of about 2.5 percentage points over the end of 2020. The installed scale and proportion of non fossil energy power generation are expected to exceed that of coal power for the first time.

（3） During the peak winter, the national power supply and demand is generally tight, and the power supply and demand situation in some areas is tight

       On the demand side, the macro economy will continue to remain within a reasonable range, and the power consumption demand will maintain a medium growth level. The meteorological department preliminarily expects that there will be frequent cold air activities affecting China this winter. The power consumption of the whole society increases at a medium speed and superimposes cold air and other factors to further amplify the growth of power load, in which the growth of heating load is more obvious, and the power load of some urban residents accounts for about 50%.

       On the supply side, in terms of hydropower, the energy storage value of key hydropower stations decreased year-on-year, and the precipitation in winter was generally less. In terms of new energy, the installed proportion of wind power and solar power continues to rise, the randomness, intermittency and volatility have increased significantly, and the shortage of peak shaving resources in the operation of the power system has further intensified. In terms of thermal power, the state has made every effort to promote the increase of coal production and supply, promote the handling of coal mine procedures and nuclear increase of production capacity. It is expected that the supply and demand situation of power coal will be eased compared with that in the early stage, but the power coal supply in some areas may still be tight. In addition, the natural gas supply in Guangdong, Jiangsu and other areas with more gas and power installations may be tight, which will restrict the output of thermal power units.

       It is expected that during the peak winter, the national power supply and demand is generally tight, and the power supply and demand situation in some areas is tight. From the perspective of supply and demand balance in each region, it is expected that the power supply and demand in Northeast and northwest regions are basically balanced, but the proportion of new energy in the region is significant, and the contradiction between peak shaving and heat supply is more prominent; The power supply and demand in North China, East China and central China is tight; The situation of power supply and demand in the south is tense. Fuel supply guarantee and winter climate are the main uncertain factors affecting the power supply and demand situation this winter. If the national power and fuel supply continues to be tight or there is a long-term and large-scale cold wave weather, the number of provinces with tight power supply and demand will increase, and some provincial power grids in all regional power grids will show varying degrees of tension.

3、 Relevant suggestions

       In view of the current power supply and demand situation and the sustainable development of power enterprises, relevant suggestions are put forward as follows:

       First, make every effort to ensure the stable supply of electricity and fuel. Earnestly implement the spirit of the executive meeting of the State Council, and further accelerate the implementation of policies and measures to increase coal production and supply in accordance with the latest national requirements. Supervise the release of nuclear production capacity as soon as possible, and consider taking efficiency improvement measures such as limited time handling and joint handling for some links or procedures. For the large-scale advanced coal mines in production, on the premise of meeting the safety production requirements, study and give priority to organizing the qualified advanced production capacity coal mines to increase the production capacity and the production plan during the supply guarantee period according to a certain coefficient. Establish a joint supervision mechanism for coal mine output, railway transportation volume and inventory in all links; Strengthen the coordination of transportation capacity in Northeast, southwest and other regions; Study the power dispatching and power coal mutual aid plan when rain, snow and freezing weather affect transportation, and study the opening of automobile transportation green channel when necessary for power plants with urgent inventory and limited railway transportation. Supervise and ensure that all annual long-term agreements signed at the beginning of the year and supplemented recently are fully fulfilled. Formulate coal mine supply guarantee and flexible production methods, form coal mine emergency production capacity, and promote the construction of coal reserve capacity, so as to meet the seasonal variation characteristics of market demand. Urge natural gas sales enterprises and pipeline network enterprises to strengthen the guarantee of gas for power generation, coordinate the dispatching operation of power grid and gas network, and ensure the peak power generation capacity of gas units.

       Second, guarantee the fuel purchase funds of thermal power enterprises. We will vigorously promote the full implementation of the policies of the executive meeting of the State Council on the guarantee of supply of financial institutions, tax deferment and local financial guarantee subsidies. Strengthen the implementation of the notice on matters related to serving the normal production of coal power industry and the orderly circulation of commodity market to ensure the stable operation of economy (Yin Bao Jian Fa [2021] No. 42). Establish a rapid response mechanism for coal-fired power, heating and other enterprises that meet the support conditions, open up green loan channels, and give priority to loan approval and investment; For coal-fired power and other enterprises and projects that meet the support conditions, we will not draw or break loans in violation of regulations, prevent "Sports" carbon reduction and "one size fits all" credit, maintain the normal operation of the enterprise capital chain, effectively ensure the availability of fuel procurement funds for thermal power enterprises, and resolutely put an end to the problem of shutdown due to lack of coal and gas due to lack of funds.

       Third, accelerate the promotion and implementation of market-oriented reform measures for coal power on grid price. Relevant state departments urge all localities to accelerate the implementation of the requirements of the notice on further deepening the market-oriented reform of on grid electricity price for coal-fired power generation (fgjg [2021] No. 1439), expand the floating range of market transaction electricity price, effectively dredge the coal machine electricity price and improve the power maintenance capacity of coal-fired units; It is suggested to reasonably adjust the benchmark price of coal-fired power generation according to the current positioning and cost of coal-fired power units in the system, maintain the organic connection between the benchmark price of coal-fired power generation and power generation cost, maintain the survival and reproduction capacity of coal-fired power enterprises, ensure the safety of energy supply, more flexibly connect the two markets of electricity and coal, resist market risks and ensure the reasonable income of enterprises.

       Fourth, strengthen the order of upstream and downstream production and supply of coal and electricity. Strengthen the price control of pithead, port and other links, especially focus on supervising the random price increase in mining areas, prevent price speculation, stabilize the downstream price, ensure the coal quantity and quality of coal-fired power plants, and avoid the obstruction of the output of coal-fired power units, resulting in the reduction of the effective output of the system. Urge local governments to ensure the rigid implementation of annual inter provincial and inter regional power transmission and reception plans, inter governmental power transmission and reception agreements and other transactions, so as to avoid unreasonable reduction of power transmission due to tight power supply, which will affect the performance of medium and long-term contracts between provinces and the production and life of power receiving provinces.

        Fifth, deepen demand side management and strengthen the implementation control of orderly power consumption. It is suggested to introduce a national demand response support policy to achieve full coverage of the demand response subsidy policy, include the demand response construction and subsidy costs into the peak electricity price increase funds, transmission and distribution electricity prices or auxiliary service fees, and broaden the sources of demand response funds through multiple channels. Deeply carry out the organization of demand response declaration, mobilize power users and load integrators to actively participate in demand response, and bring various adjustable resources such as microgrid, electric vehicle and charging pile into the demand response resource pool. Strengthen the implementation control of orderly power consumption, and establish and improve the working mechanism of orderly power consumption. Put people's livelihood first and stick to the bottom line of people's livelihood. Adhere to scientific peak shifting and ensure that enterprises do not reduce production during peak shifting to the greatest extent. Strictly implement the orderly power consumption plan and do a good job in publicity and guidance.

       Sixth, accelerate the construction of emergency standby power supply and key power grid projects. Give full play to the role of coal power supply, improve the management mechanism of emergency standby power supply, and implement a number of emergency standby power supply projects as soon as possible. Speed up the flexibility transformation of coal and electricity, strengthen the construction of pumped storage, promote the construction of peak shaving gas and electricity, promote the application of large-scale electrochemical energy storage, and improve the system regulation capacity. For local power grids with power supply bottlenecks, carry out research on grid structure adjustment and optimization, promote the construction of strong smart grid, and improve the power support capacity between provinces and regions.

notes:

       The two-year average growth (growth rate) is calculated by geometric average method based on the same period value in 2019.

       The four high energy carrying industries include: chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry.

       High tech and equipment manufacturing industry includes 9 industries: pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, railway / ship / aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer / communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, and instrument manufacturing industry.

       Consumer goods manufacturing includes: agricultural and sideline food processing industry, food manufacturing industry, wine / beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry, tobacco products industry, textile industry, textile and garment industry, leather / fur / feather and its products and shoemaking industry, wood processing and wood / bamboo / rattan / Brown / grass products industry, furniture manufacturing industry, papermaking and paper products industry, printing and recording media reproduction industry Culture and education / industrial beauty / sports and entertainment products manufacturing 12 industries.

       Other manufacturing industries are among the 31 industries classified by power consumption of manufacturing industry, except for the four high load energy industries, high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry, including oil / coal and other fuel processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry, rubber and plastic products industry, other manufacturing industries, comprehensive utilization of waste resources Metal products / machinery and equipment repair industry.

The eastern region includes 10 provinces (cities) including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan; The central region includes six provinces: Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan; The western region includes 12 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang; Northeast China includes Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces.